125.87%, 104.38%, 80.67%! The US anti-dumping duties have once again devastated three countries, threatening to cut off China's path to solar panel exports?

Less than a year after imposing high anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on four Southeast Asian countries, the United States has now turned its attention to India, Indonesia and Laos.

This time, the "leapfrog" space available for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises has been severely restricted.

The blockade has intensified, with a maximum increase of 143.3%

On February 24th local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it had made a preliminary affirmative anti-dumping duty ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from India, Indonesia and Laos. This is another attempt by the US to encroach upon China's photovoltaic supply chain, following the imposition of high double anti-dumping duties on Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand last year.

This investigation was initiated by the American Solar Manufacturing and Trade Alliance in July 2025. The members of this alliance include Hanwha Qcells of South Korea, First Solar of the United States, and Mission Solar under OCI Holdings.

According to the preliminary ruling results announced by the US Department of Commerce, the countervailing duty rates for the three countries are as follows:

These are the initial tax rates. The actual collection will take effect after the federal gazette is published. The customs will immediately require the importers to pay a deposit.

The timeline for this investigation is as follows:

Anti-subsidy preliminary ruling: February 24, 2026 (completed)

Anti-dumping preliminary ruling: Expected around April 21, 2026

Final ruling: Expected on September 3, 2026

Final ruling by the International Trade Commission: October 19, 2026

Final tax collection: After October 19

The surge behind the data

Why did the United States choose these three countries? The trade data provides the answer.

According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, in 2025, India, Indonesia and Laos together exported approximately 4.5 billion US dollars worth of solar products to the United States, accounting for about two-thirds of the total solar imports to the US that year.

What is more striking is the rapid increase in the volume of imports:

India: From approximately 232 MW in 2022 to 2.29 GW in 2024, worth nearly 793 million US dollars, an increase of nearly 9 times

Indonesia: Reached 1.8 GW in 2024, worth approximately 416 million US dollars

Laos: From almost no exports in 2022 to 1.9 GW in 2024, worth approximately 336 million US dollars

"This rapid increase itself becomes the reason for the US investigation." The US Solar Manufacturing and Trade Alliance, which submitted the application, pointed out in the document, this strongly indicates that these imported products are being hurriedly transported to the United States to evade the imposition of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes.

The encirclement from Southeast Asia to South Asia

To understand this incident, one needs to trace back the evolution of the US's trade policy towards China in the field of photovoltaic products.

The first stage: Direct blockade of China (2012-2015) Due to the combined effect of anti-dumping duties, 201 tariffs, and 301 tariffs, the tax rate for Chinese-produced photovoltaic products exceeded 109%, and they have almost stopped being directly exported to the US. After the two rounds of anti-dumping measures in 2012 and 2015, Chinese enterprises began to export to the US via Southeast Asia.

The second stage: Containment of Southeast Asia (2024-2025) In 2025, the US imposed high anti-dumping tariffs on photovoltaic products from Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand, with the highest tax rate reaching an astonishing 3521.14%. The channels for exporting to the US from Southeast Asia were basically blocked.

The third stage: Targeting South Asia and new bases in Southeast Asia (2026) This tax imposition on India, Indonesia, and Laos marks that the US will expand the blockade to other Asian countries where Chinese enterprises may transfer their production capacity.

"After the US imposed high tariffs on the four Southeast Asian countries, some developers have turned to purchasing components from these countries," according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. In the first half of 2025, India, Indonesia, and Laos together accounted for 57% of the US's solar module imports.

Where is the future path of China's photovoltaic industry!

This initial ruling by the United States on anti-subsidy taxes against the three countries indicates that the space for circumventing tariffs has been completely squeezed. From Southeast Asia to South Asia, from Indonesia to Laos, the United States is forming a blocking network covering the entire Asia.

Any capacity transfer with Chinese background may become the target of the next round of investigation.

The way out for Chinese enterprises lies in a truly globalized layout. Simple "repurposing" for export can no longer sustain. The real way out lies in achieving integration with the local market through means such as technology licensing, joint factory establishment, and local supply chain localization.

The anti-subsidy taxes imposed by the United States on India, Indonesia, and Laos are new challenges that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises must face in their globalization process. For the Chinese photovoltaic industry, the real challenge is not the level of tariffs at one time or in one place, but rather a strict test of the resilience of the industrial chain.